LRT English Newsletter – July 17, 2026.
Russia is allegedly planning something disruptive in the Baltic states or Poland, though stopping short of full-scale aggression, the Lithuanian president confirmed on Wednesday. We’ve heard similar reports for a while, so here’s the chain of events that will help you straighten out the timeline.
Lithuania first announced it was upping security at critical energy infrastructure sites on June 18. Then, the Daily Telegraph reported on July 3 about possible provocations against a Baltic country or Poland to test NATO resolve, citing intelligence sources in Warsaw and one of the three Baltic countries.
Then, in an interview published by BNS on Wednesday, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda confirmed there is intelligence on the possibility of attacks. On Thursday, he elaborated during a press conference with his visiting Latvian counterpart, Edgars Rinkēvičs.
“I cannot say that we have only just started receiving this kind of intelligence. We have been receiving it over the past two or three months,” said Nausėda.
For his part, Rinkēvičs also pointed to Russia’s past assassinations of political dissidents. Naming a series of other attacks, Rinkevičs added: “If we are backed into a corner, we will have to respond as an alliance.”
Nausėda concurred: “This planning is taking place at the highest level, effectively in Moscow, and we know that it has not stopped for even a minute.” Recall, Lithuania recently foiled a Russian assassination plot, which would have targeted a pro-Ukraine activist and a Russian opposition figure.
In any case, Russia lacks the means to mount anything significant. But analysts have long pointed at something like drone attacks with plausible deniability that would have a “cascading effect”, as Nausėda put it. Think Lithuania–Poland energy link, for example, which is one of the installations where authorities have upped security.
The sources quoted by the Daily Telegraph went further, saying there could also be an armed incursion into the so-called Suwalki Gap that links the Baltics with Poland and is flanked on either side by Russia’s Kaliningrad and Belarus.
A similar scenario was played out in public wargaming scenarios in the past. They were almost unanimously criticised in the Baltics (including by myself) for completely ignoring the local military forces and focusing solely on the political paralysis that may – or may not – occur in Brussels or Washington.
Moscow, of course, denies all allegations.
(Russia is also planning to mount an international legal challenge against alleged discrimination against ethnic Russians in the Baltics. Read the investigation here.)
DUMPSTER FIRE
There’s a trash crisis in the Vilnius region, and we don’t use the word “crisis” lightly. Waste processing was now “practically at a complete standstill”, with debts to subcontractors described as enormous by Vilnius Mayor Valdas Benkunskas. The piles of waste are growing, and so is the risk of fire associated with it, according to Benkunskas. The municipality is pinning the blame on the company hired to process waste; it denies blame. Several options are being worked, the National Crisis Management Centre (NKVC) said, including declaring a nationwide emergency, contracting other firms and taking the waste elsewhere.
WAS IT, OR WAS IT NOT?
A 16-year story was rekindled this week after the European Court of Human Rights ruled against Lithuania in the case over unlawful detention in America’s CIA black site in Lithuania. Nothing to see here, the president said, repeating the claim that there was no secret CIA prison in the country, even if the Justice Ministry said it would comply with the ruling. The prosecutors later confirmed that their decade-long investigation into the CIA prison on Lithuanian territory continues. It doesn’t look like they’ve collected much evidence, though, and it’s classified anyway.
NEW GOVERNMENT SWORN-IN
The new government led by Mindaugas Sinkevičius was sworn in on Tuesday. Here’s a primer on how Lithuania’s foreign policy might have some changes written in between the lines – or not. https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2989149/lithuania-s-foreign-policy-direction-same-but-different
‘NUCLEAR OPTION’
Lithuania is considering introducing border checks with Latvia amid a spike in secondary migration – people cross from Belarus into Latvia, then travel through Lithuania to Poland. The new interior minister, Martynas Katelynas, called it a “nuclear option”, while President Nausėda said this would amount to “capitulation” to the problem. The Latvian president also spoke out against taking such a decision. The hard reality is that neither country has enough border officers to enforce such controls, as most personnel are deployed on the Belarus and Russia borders. And in an unrelated border story, please don’t try to smuggle 21 exotic spiders in your car.
LOOKING FOR A JOB?
You will soon be able to apply for foreign-language teaching jobs, even if you don’t have pedagogical qualifications. The government approved this measure amid a shortage of staff to teach languages like French and Spanish.
AIR DEFENCE UPDATE
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania scored an arguable win at the Ankara NATO summit by securing a change in mission from Baltic air policing to an air defence mandate (we covered it in our previous newsletter). But what does it actually mean? The change follows an earlier, unfulfilled promise to deploy air defence systems on a rotational model. Due to the shortage of such systems, the result was just two brief deployments since 2023. Thus, the new change seeks to supersede the earlier promise, by giving pilots and commanders more flexibility. However, there will be few visible changes or concrete actions, according to experts and politicians interviewed by our colleague at LRT TV.
In other defence-related news, Lithuania has approved a state-level evacuation plan, which foresees around 75 percent of the population leaving in case of a disaster without centralised support.
EDITOR’S PICKS:
– Most people in Lithuania like to see themselves as middle class.
– Your weekly reminder that house prices are skyrocketing.
– Berry harvests are poor.
– An EU court has dismissed a lawsuit seeking to overturn sanctions that ended the transit of Belarusian potash fertilisers through Lithuania.
– Chicago hosted one of the largest Lithuanian festivals ever.
– Don’t follow AI route advice in the mountains if you don’t want to get stuck.
– And when’s the best weather for holidays in Lithuania?
Written by Benas Gerdžiūnas
Edited by Justinas Šuliokas
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